The CJ Cup Byron Nelson
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Apr 29, 2024The CJ Cup Byron Nelson
It was a week off for us last week as we sat out the Zurich Classic pairs event won by Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry.
Prior to that though we had a solid if unspectacular week at the RBC Heritage as two of our selections Patrick Cantlay and Sepp Straka brought home the place money and a profit on the week. The event of course was won by Scottie Scheffler who backed up his win at Augusta with another hugely impressive performance to land his fourth trophy in his previous five starts. Much to the relief then I’m sure for those in the field this week the local man skips this ‘home game’ to focus on imminent fatherhood.
Talking of, which and the tour heads back to Texas for what from this year is known as the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
The event was first held in 1944 and has throughout its history been played in the Dallas area. In 1968 the event was renamed The Byron Nelson Classic and after a series of sponsors over the years AT&T became the title sponsor in 2015.
In 2018 the tournament moved to the Crenshaw/Coore designed Trinity Forest GC however the links style venue was not to everyone’s taste and in early 2020 it was announced that the event that year would be the last to be held at that venue with the tournament moving to a new host course TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney some 30 miles from Dallas.
Unfortunately the 2020 edition was then cancelled due to the Covid 19 pandemic meaning that the event was only held for two years at Trinity Forest before it moved in 2021.
This year then while we remain at TPC Craig Ranch it is all change on the title sponsor front as after AT&T ended their long standing relationship with the event the CJ Group have stepped up. CJ first hooked up with the PGA Tour in 2017 when sponsoring the event in South Korea, however with that event falling by the wayside it would seem this is a good fit for them to continue their relationship with the tour, allowing for the number of Korean players who live in the local area.
The market is headed up by home favourite Jordan Spieth. Spieth is then followed by defending champion Jason Day, Si Woo Kim and Will Zalatoris.
COURSE
So this year we return to TPC Craig Ranch in Mckinney, Texas for the fourth time.
The course which was historically a par 72 will for the second year play to a par 71 measuring just on 7400 yards. The change, which was made is the 12th hole was shortened by 40yds or so and now plays as a par 4 instead of a par 5.
The greens are bentgrass and the fairways are zoyzia.
The course was designed by the late Tom Weiskopf. For comparison purposes it is worth noting that Weiskopf headed up the redesign of TPC Scottsdale home of the Waste Management Phoenix Open in 2015 and with both courses holding the TPC moniker and playing to a par 71 that event is certainly worth looking at for comparison purposes.
In addition Weiskopf was responsible for the recent North Course redesign at Torrey Pines.
The course features wider than average fairways and if the wind doesn’t blow low scoring with a hot putter is the order of the day.
The current course record is 61 and is held by Ryan Palmer.
While the course, which opened in 2004 has only been used once on the PGA Tour it did host the equivalent of the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in 2008 and 2012 with these events won by Matt Bettencourt and Justin Bolli respectively. While we can’t of course read too much at all in to those events it is noticeable that there were plenty of shorter, precision hitters on those final leaderboards including the likes of Colt Knost and Bryce Molder who both tied third in 2008.
HISTORY
With this being only the fourth year this course has hosted this event we have very little to go on and there is no real point in looking at the history of the event prior to last year.
Let’s though take a look at the top ten finishers here in 2021, 2022 & 2023.
2023
1 J Day
T2 SW Kim & A Eckroat
4 CT Pan
T5 S Scheffler, T Hatton, Z Dou
T8 A Scott, R Palmer, V Normann
2022
1 KH Lee
2 J Spieth
T3 H Matsuyama, S Munoz.
T5 J Thomas, X Schauffele, R Palmer
8 C Schwartzel
T9 P Malnati, J Hahn, D Riley.
2021
1 KH Lee
2 S Burns
T3 D Berger, P Kizzire, C Schwartzel, S Stallings.
T7 J Bramlett, T Merritt
T9 J Spieth, S Power, D Redman, J Vegas.
So what can we learn from these leaderboards? Well in general we have players with a mix of styles with KH Lee who owned this place in the first two years shooting -26 and -25 on top of his game in all areas.
In 2021 he ranked second from tee to green and in approach play for the week and ninth in putting while last year he was fifth from tee to green, eighth in approach and 13th in putting.
That said it would appear as is often the case with a birdie fest strong tee to green play to give yourself plenty of looks rather than a hot putter is the key to success here. Runner up in 2021 Burns ranked first from tee to green for the week and sixth in approach play. Similarly 2022 runner up Spieth was again first from tee to green and fourth in approach play. Both though were more subdued on the greens with Spieth ranking 36th in this area last year.
Furthermore if we head down from 2022 only three of the top 11 home ranked in the top ten on the greens while eighth of them ranked in the top ten from tee to green.
Meanwhile a look at 2023s final leaderboard shows us that Jason Day ranked third in approach play while the two players tied for second Si Woo Kim and Austin Eckroat ranked sixth and 15th in approach play. All in all then strong iron play appears to be the key.
Looking at correlating courses and one observation I made coming in to the week in 2021 was a potential link between TPC Scottsdale and here, due to the fact that the course designer here Tom Weiskopf was responsible for the most recent redesign at Scottsdale. From that point of view the fact that prior to his maiden win here KH Lee had posted by far his best finish of 2021 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in January where he finished second was a huge tick to that link. Last year meanwhile two time TPC Scottsdale Champion Hideki Matsuyama finished third here while local Dallas man runner up Spieth has also performed well at the Arizona event.
In addition another event that has caught my eye from a correlation point of view is the 3M Open, which is also hosted by a low scoring TPC track, TPC Twin Cities. This event saw KH Lee notch a sixth place finish in 2021 while Charles Schwartzel, Jonny Vegas and James Hahn have both notched big finishes both here and in Minnesota over the first two years.
Finally I cant help but look at the last years leaderboard in particular here and see a connection to TPC Sawgrass with Day and SW Kim finishing first and second while other Players champions Scheffler and Scott along with 2023 Sawgrass runner up Hatton also finished in the top ten.
Another angle we should not ignore here of course is the Texas connection. Quite simply Texans/Texas based players play well in Texas. The 2023 top ten featured four players with Texas links, Spieth, Munoz, Palmer and Riley, while last years saw Texas based players Day & Kim first and second.
WEATHER FORECAST
Unfortunately at the time of writing the forecast shows we could be in for a disruptive week with all four days showing the potential for interruptions with storms.
Temperatures look set to sit in the low 80s all week.
The wind which is more often than not an issue in Texas also looks like it could be a factor with gusts of 20mph+ showing as a possibility across the week.
As I always say though this could all change!
PICKS
I have gone with five players this week as follows;
TOM HOGE – 40/1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 41st
I am going to start things off this week with Tom Hoge.
A one time winner on the PGA Tour to date at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am in 2022 we were onboard when Tom struck gold that year, and there are a plenty of things pointing to the fact he could strike here again this week.
Firstly as noted earlier the key to success at TPC Craig Ranch appears to be strong iron play to give yourself plenty of looks in an event, which ultimately to date has been a birdie fest.
Therefore taking the guy who currently sits second on tour for the season in approach play and in proximity to the hole, seems very much the order of the day.
With Hoge’s iron play firing strongly it is not a great surprise that his form this year to date has been rock solid. Currently at 19th for the season in the Fedex standings Tom has not missed a cut in a solo event since the Sony Open, posting seven top 20s including two top tens along the way.
So we’ve established Tom is in really strong form but what of his course suitability? Well it must be said that in three visits to the event to date he hasn’t set the world alight, that said he has never arrived here in the form he does this year and a 17th place in 2022, his best finish since losing his way somewhat after winning at Pebble Beach certainly showed promise.
Nothing spectacular on the CV at TPC Craig Ranch then it must be said, however what particularly interests me is his correlating form on TPC tracks. Firstly Tom produced a superb third place finish at Sawgrass in 2023, which as noted links well here, while in 2022 he posted an out of the blue fourth place at TPC Twin Cities, another course which links well here, on the back of having not made a cut in the previous two months. There are clear signs then that Tom enjoys the traits of a TPC track where strong approach play is rewarded.
Finally the icing on the cake is that Tom attended Texas Chrisian University in nearby Fort Worth so you would have to think he is really comfortable in this area and in blustery Texas conditions.
All in all then Tom ticks an awful lot of boxes for me this week and I can see a big week from him ahead.
CHAN KIM – 90/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC
Next cab off the rank this week is Chan Kim.
A two time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour last season Kim has really caught the eye on his debut PGA Tour campaign to date and, as he does to many I suspect, he has the look to me of a rookie who could easily go on to win this year.
At 34yrs old Chan is no spring chicken, however even though he has only just transitioned to the PGA Tour he is a hugely proven worldwide winner with eight successes in Japan to his name to go with those two Korn Ferry triumphs.
Looking at Kim’s year so far and his best performances have come in lower scoring contests, which certainly fits for this week. He first posted a 14th place finish in the Amex with a -22 total and that TPC link bodes well here. He then notched an eighth place in Mexico when we were onboard, finishing on 12- under, while his sixth at the Corales saw him post -16.
Meanwhile allowing for the low numbers we have seen here the past three years I can’t help but be drawn to his 20- under and 28- under winning totals on the Korn Ferry last year.
Kim has been solid from tee to green this season with the putter being the club that lets him down occasionally, however I expect him to give himself plenty of birdie looks this week and if the flat stick cooperates he could well be right in the hunt come Sunday afternoon.
MATTI SCHMID – 100/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC
Next up for me this week is Matti Schmid.
I chanced Matti last time out at the Corales and while he couldn’t quite make the frame he produced another strong week to finish 11th.
Matti started 2024 slowly, missing his first six cuts, however after posting a tenth place in Puerto Rico he has really found his mojo, making five solo cuts since and notching four more top 30 finishes. What’s more with this week in mind his 26th place at TPC Sawgrass, where he opened up with to 68s gives us a nice pointer.
In addition if we look back at the German’s 22-23 campaign there are three further eye catching pieces of TPC form, which grab my attention. Firstly we have his sixth place finish in the Amex event in January, then later in the year when he had been struggling for form on the PGA Tour for three months he popped up with a 20th place at the 3M, while finally he notched rounds of 65 and 63 at the Shriners in the Fall.
Matti missed the cut here last year on his one previous appearance however he was in no form at all at that time and I expect a considerable improvement from him here this week.
RYAN MOORE – 125/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC
To wrap up this week I shall return to two old friends of these columns starting by giving one last chance to Ryan Moore on his current run of form.
Moore caught the eye at TPC Sawgrass with a really strong week with the irons leading me to jump on board at the Valspar where he rewarded us with a full place return. We then stuck with Ryan for the following week in Houston where he continued to hit the ball really well but probably found the track too long, before he faded at the Valero the week after. Still though a really solid run of golf and my suspicion is that while he was compelled to play at the Valero in an attempt to make the Masters and more realistically the Heritage through the Swing Five, he was probably out of steam by then as he has not been prone to play four on the spin for a while now.
Rested then, Ryan returns this week and while he has not produced anything on this track before I can’t help but think TPC Craig Ranch should be right up the alley of an in form Moore.
Always a player at his best on a straight forward test he can pick a part Ryan has flourished over the years at TPC Deere Run and TPC Summerlin, both of which fit nicely here.
Currently fourth on tour in approach play and accurate as always off the tee it really is all about the putter and if he can get that component to fire this week while maintaining the long game momentum he has had of late he could produce a really big week here.
MARTIN LAIRD – 125/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 48th
Finally I will take my chances on Martin Laird. As longer term readers will know we struck gold with Laird at the Shriners in 2020, for which he will always hold a place in our hearts.
Not unsurprisingly though since then despite the odd strong week it has mostly been a struggle for Martin and with the exemption for the Shriners win now long gone he faces another battle this campaign.
What brings me to him this week though is a combination of things. Firstly from a form point of view Martin has been on a solid if unspectacular run, which has seen him make his last six solo starts, posting two top tens along the way.
Secondly if we look at the correlating course form there are a few real pointers. Firstly of course we have his stellar record both at TPC Summerlin and to a lesser, but still strong one, at TPC Scottsdale. In addition if we look at last year the Scotsman saved his season with a second place finish out of nowhere at TPC Twin Cities. Finally if we look at his performance here last year he arrived at the event on the back of six straight missed cuts, however after opening with a 72 he went on to post rounds of 66 66 & 67 to finish 34th. To me then it is clear this type of low scoring TPC test really suits Laird.
At 41 Laird still has another win in him and with it now being nearly four years since the most recent it could just be time for him to strike again and I am happy to roll the dice here.